Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Sea To Sky.
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
Precipitation and strong SW winds will prevail as the cold front moves across the region Tuesday. Tuesday: Snow amounts up to 25 cm. Freezing levels 1900 m then dropping overnight to valley bottom. Ridgetop winds moderate from the SW. Wednesday/ Thursday: Mainly cloudy with possible sunny breaks in the afternoon and some flurries expected. Ridgetop winds light from the West. Freezing levels near 1200 m.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous size 1 wind slab, loose dry and loose wet avalanches were reported on Sunday. One size 2.5 slab avalanche was also reported and the failure plane was a buried crust, no other details noted. Cornices are sagging, with one failure a couple of days ago. With new snow and strong winds forecast for Tuesday, I suspect natural avalanche activity will be on the rise.
Snowpack Summary
Higher elevation areas have recently received up to 25 cm of new snow which sits on a variety of old snow surfaces including surface hoar, facets and melt freeze crusts. Isolated wind slabs have formed and a poor bond seem to exist, especially on slopes with a buried crust.Recent warm temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack and tests are producing hard resistant planar shears on the late March crust. Below 1800 m a spring-like melt-freeze snowpack exists.Persistent weak layers exist lower in the snowpack. The mid-March surface hoar/ crust interface now down 80 -110 cm. The early-March crust/facet layer is down about 100-150 cm and the early February layer is now down close to 200 cm. These layers are largely dormant at this time; however, they should remain on your radar as we begin to transition into a warm-up with minimal overnight re-freeze.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 4
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 3 - 7
Loose Wet
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3