Avalanche Forecast

Fair

Synopsis: One more warm front should pass across the South Coast late Sunday spreading light to moderate snowfall through Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure builds in on Monday kicking off a drying trend. Sunday: Flurries or light snow – 5-15 cm. The snow line is near sea level. Ridge winds are moderate from the W-NW. Monday: Flurries ending early, followed by a mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level is around 500-800 m. Winds are moderate from the north, easing to light. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level is around 1000-1200 m. Winds are light.

Natural avalanche activity largely tapered off on Friday. There was one report of a skier triggered avalanche in the Blackcomb backcountry. Visibility was poor so there are few details on this slide. Other observers continue to report whumpfing with heavy loads. It's likely that it will become increasingly difficult to trigger the mid-Feb persistent weakness; however, if triggered the resulting avalanche would be very large. Think about the consequences before you decide to jump into a slope.

The prominent mid-February weakness, which is primarily a facet/crust combo (with surface hoar in some areas), is now 70-150 cm deep depending on wind exposure. Recent snowpack tests give variable results on this layer, but some observers are still reporting sudden "pops or drops" shears and are experiencing significant whumpfing. Previous strong winds have created wind slabs in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain. Relatively thin wind slabs have the potential to trigger the deeper mid-Feb weakness. The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-settled. Basal facets and depth hoar buried earlier in the season are likely to exist in some parts of the region; however, skier triggering has become unlikely.