Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Light snow overnight with moderate southwest winds and freezing levels around 600 metres. Light snow continuing on Thursday with increasing southwest winds and freezing levels rising up to about 1000 metres. Light snow Friday morning becoming heavy snow/rain in the afternoon as strong southerly winds push warm and wet air into the region causing freezing levels to rise up to at least 1500 metres. Heavy snow and strong winds continuing overnight into Saturday morning.

Some sluffing reported from steep terrain on Tuesday. Reports from Monday include more evidence of the widespread large slab avalanche cycle associated with heavy loading from snow, wind and rain over the weekend. Skier testing and explosives control on the weekend produced several Size 1-1.5 soft slabs from immediate lee features and loose dry avalanches on steep slopes. There were also reports of a couple Size 1 accidentally triggered wind slabs from steep leeward alpine slopes.

Up to 50 cm of dry new snow sits on 60-80 cm of moist settled snow from last week's warm storm system, or a rain crust below around 1800 m. Expect to find pockets of fresh wind slab in exposed lee terrain and the potential for loose dry avalanches on steep open slopes. Cornices are also becoming large and potentially weak. Where it still exists, the mid-January surface hoar layer may be found between 100 and 180 cm below the surface. The combination of heavy storm loading and warm temperatures has likely flushed out this weak layer in most areas. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the sensitivity and distribution of this persistent avalanche problem, especially at high elevations in the north of the region where it remains reactive in snowpack tests (hard to initiate but sudden "pops" results).