Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Another 3-5mm of precipitation is expected Monday overnight. Light lingering flurries are expected for Tuesday with freezing levels around 1200m and light NW winds in the alpine. A ridge of high pressure should keep the region dry on Wednesday. A mix of sun and cloud is expected with light winds. Another warm, wet system is expected for Thursday with models currently showing around 20mm of precipitation falling during the day on Thursday. Unfortunately, freezing levels are forecast to rise to over 2000m again. This looks like the theme for the weekend with heavy precipitation and high freezing levels until at least Sunday.

On both Sunday and Monday, ski-cutting and explosives were producing thin soft slabs which were running on the firm crust layer. These were limited to size 1 and were isolated to wind affected terrain. Sluffing from steep terrain features was also reported. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday with natural avalanches not expected and skier-triggered avalanches remaining possible in wind-loaded features.

10-20cm of new snow overlies a hard rain crust that exists up to at least 2100m. In exposed terrain, the new accumulations have been shifted by strong SW winds into wind slabs which may be especially reactive due to the underlying crust. Deeper snowpack weaknesses have become unreactive on account of the strong capping crust layer.