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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 16th, 2012–Feb 17th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kootenay Boundary.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Overnight snowfall is expected to total about 5-10 cm in most of the region. The southern parts of the region may see up to 15cm. Another ridge is forecast for Friday that should bring mostly clear skies and light winds during the day. The next Pacific frontal system is expected to move inland from the coast during the evening. Moderate snowfall combined with moderate southwest wind is expected during the morning, turning to flurries in the afternoon. Forecast amounts are about 5-10 cm total. Southern parts of the region may again see a little bit more snow. Light flurries are expected to continue on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

A couple of thin (20-25cm) soft wind slab avalanches have been reported in the Kootenay Pass area. These avalanches were size 1.5 - 2.0 that ran on the recently buried surface hoar/facet combination.

Snowpack Summary

Another 5-10cm of snow on Thursday has brought the total to about 15-25 cm of dry snow above the major surface hoar created at the beginning of the month. Some thin windslab may have developed in the alpine due to moderate westerly winds. This interface will be one to watch as it receives more snow load and/or the slab settles. Below that 30cm of near-surface facets can be found on shady slopes while a sun crust can be found on southerly aspects. In shallow snowpack areas concerns remain for the mid-December persistent weakness down around 80-100cm and for basal facets.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Forecast new snow and southwest wind is expected to build windslab on Northerly aspects in the alpine and treeline. Some thin windslabs have already developed on a variety of aspects. Recent buried surface hoar provides an easy fast sliding surface.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Large avalanches remain a concern in shallow rocky areas where they could be triggered with a very heavy load, such as cornice fall.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 7