Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 16th, 2012 9:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada triley, Avalanche Canada

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Overnight snowfall is expected to total about 5-10 cm in most of the region. The southern parts of the region may see up to 15cm. Another ridge is forecast for Friday that should bring mostly clear skies and light winds during the day. The next Pacific frontal system is expected to move inland from the coast during the evening. Moderate snowfall combined with moderate southwest wind is expected during the morning, turning to flurries in the afternoon. Forecast amounts are about 5-10 cm total. Southern parts of the region may again see a little bit more snow. Light flurries are expected to continue on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

A couple of thin (20-25cm) soft wind slab avalanches have been reported in the Kootenay Pass area. These avalanches were size 1.5 - 2.0 that ran on the recently buried surface hoar/facet combination.

Snowpack Summary

Another 5-10cm of snow on Thursday has brought the total to about 15-25 cm of dry snow above the major surface hoar created at the beginning of the month. Some thin windslab may have developed in the alpine due to moderate westerly winds. This interface will be one to watch as it receives more snow load and/or the slab settles. Below that 30cm of near-surface facets can be found on shady slopes while a sun crust can be found on southerly aspects. In shallow snowpack areas concerns remain for the mid-December persistent weakness down around 80-100cm and for basal facets.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Forecast new snow and southwest wind is expected to build windslab on Northerly aspects in the alpine and treeline. Some thin windslabs have already developed on a variety of aspects. Recent buried surface hoar provides an easy fast sliding surface.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs
Large avalanches remain a concern in shallow rocky areas where they could be triggered with a very heavy load, such as cornice fall.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

3 - 7

Valid until: Feb 17th, 2012 9:00AM