Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 2nd, 2021 4:01PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Wet and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Deryl Kelly,

Jasper.

Potential for a significant solar triggered cycle on an already active snowpack for the rest of the week.

Start early, seek out dry slopes, and finish early!

Summary

Weather Forecast

Overnight: Mainly cloudy. Alpine temperature: Low -12 °C. Ridge wind sw: 10 km/h.

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. Alpine temperature: High -6 °C. Ridge wind sw: 10 km/h. Freezing level: 1400 m

Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperature: Low -10 °C, High -4 °C. Ridge wind sw: 10 km/h. Freezing level: 1800m

Snowpack Summary

Continued widespread wind effect with some light precip. transported through open areas at all elevations. Windward aspects have been heavily stripped of snow, creating hard windslabs in all lee features. Highly variable snowpack across the region, with shallow areas failing at the faceted base, while deeper regions have a strong mid-pack bridge.

Avalanche Summary

Wind slabs up to size 2-3 were observed again today in the Sunwapta Zone on E and SW aspects.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Continued wind slab development is expected with overnight snowfall and moderate SW winds.

Wind slabs in the alpine and exposed treeline features have the potential for wide propagations across connected features.

If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

Afternoon sun is packing a punch on lower elevation, SW through W slopes. Ice climbers: be extremely cautious. Overhead hazards can catch sun early.

Use extra caution on solar slopes or if the snow is moist or wet.
If triggered the loose wet sluffs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: South, South West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Valid until: Mar 3rd, 2021 4:00PM