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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 13th, 2021–Mar 14th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

 Overhead hazards such as cornice failures and wet loose avalanches on large alpine slopes will be the primary concern on Sunday. Pay attention to what's above your head and back off of slopes if the snow surface becomes moist. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

  

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear / Strong, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature -4 / Freezing level 1800 m.

SUNDAY: Sunny with increasing cloud in afternoon / Moderate, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 0 / Freezing level 1800 m.

MONDAY: Sunny / Light, west ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -2 / Freezing level 1400 m.

TUESDAY: Sunny / Light, west ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -1 / Freezing level 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were reported in this region on Friday. However, the rapidly rising freezing level and sunny skies are expected to elevate the avalanche hazard through the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

5-15 cm. of recent convective snow and moderate southwesterly winds have formed fresh wind slabs below alpine ridgetops. Dry snow can be found on north aspects and crusty snow surfaces exist on solar aspects. Large cornices loom over alpine ridgetops.

A persistent weak layer made up of surface hoar at treeline elevations and a crust with facets in the alpine on solar aspects can be found down 50-150 cm. in some parts of the region. No recent avalanches have been reported on these layers. 

Big warm ups can awaken dormant weak layers resulting in large avalanches. Steep, rocky, convex terrain with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack are examples of places where triggering these layers are more likely.

Sunshine and warm temperatures often cause large cornice failures which are hazardous on their own and can also trigger large avalanches on deeper weak layers that the weight of a single rider would not trigger.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Rapidly rising freezing levels and sunny skies significantly increase the likelihood of cornice failures which are hazardous on their own and can also trigger large avalanches on deeper weak layers that the weight of a single rider would not trigger. Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Wet

 Naturally triggered wet loose avalanches are possible, especially on steep solar aspects in the alpine. 

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Recent convective flurries in parts of the region, solar radiation, and light to moderate winds may have formed reactive slabs in isolated alpine locations. Steep, convex slopes below alpine ridgetops are the most likely places to trigger these slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2