Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Saturday

Friday: Dry for most the morning. Cold front passes through the region in the afternoon, delivering 10 - 15 cm overnight. Freezing level tops out around 1600m Friday afternoon, dropping in the evening. Winds out of the SW, light below treeline, Strong at ridge top. Saturday: Snowfall will continue through the day, I expect total daytime accumulations to be 10 - 15 cm. Freezing level tops out around 1500m again on Saturday. Winds Mod SW near treeline, Mod to Strong SW near ridge top. Light snowfall continues through the night and into Sunday. Light snowfall is still in the picture Sunday which should result in another 10 - 15 cm by sunrise Monday.

On Wednesday a skier triggered a size 1.5 avalanche just north of the forecast region failing on the mid Feb surface hoar, down 70 cm below the snow surface. No other significant avalanche observations were reported Wednesday, but, neighboring regions continue to report large natural and human triggered avalanches. On Tuesday, avalanches from the west side of the region were smaller and seem to be limited to the storm snow. In the east, where more storm snow fell avalanches were much larger. For example near Wyndell a large natural slide buried a sled access road near valley bottom. Some remotely triggered and accidentally triggered slides reported by skiers that were 70 to 100 cm deep.

Recent storm snow amounts were approximately 40 cm in the east and 10 cm in the west, with the snow line at approximately 1600 m. The Valentines day surface hoar layer is now buried beneath as much as 120 to 140 cm! Stability tests show the deep layers are hard to trigger but there's huge potential for propagation.