Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 15th, 2017–Feb 16th, 2017

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

As delayed access backcountry areas begin to open, proceed with extreme caution as you venture into slopes that have not seen any traffic so far this winter. The snowpack is weak and will be touchy in many areas.

Weather Forecast

Strong Southwest flow bringing strong winds and light scattered precipitation for the remainder of the week. Freezing levels dropping slowly from 2100m (treeline) to valley bottom along with a cooling trend towards the end of the week. Saturday marks the end of the strong wind along with a clearing trend.

Snowpack Summary

Hard surface windslab in the alpine and open tree-line features. Recent HST in sheltered locations at tree-line and below forming a cohesive soft slab over a faceted mid-pack with only marginal support below tree-line. This is all sitting on a weak base of large facets and depth hoar to create an overall delicate and untrustworthy snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Field teams in the Columbia Icefield Area report numerous loose wet to size 1.5, not triggering slopes below. Less natural slab activity than expected today.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Hard touchy windslab in the alpine and open tree-line features showing very serious potential for wide propagation in connected features.

Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Avalanches initiated within the storm snow may step down to deeper layers and in some cases gouging to ground in thin snowpack areas.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Rain and warm temperatures expected in valley bottoms.

Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2