Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

The pattern through Tuesday is a fast NW flow before shifting back to a more typical westerly flow on Wednesday & Thursday.Overnight Monday & Tuesday: Mod to strong NW  or W wind with below freezing temps above approximately 800m. Less than 10mm water equivalent precipitation (falling as about 10 cm of snow up high).Wednesday: Winds easing to light (possibly moderate in some places) from the NW, drying out so no precipitation other than flurries expected. Temperatures slightly warmer and the possiblity of an inversion (warmer & sunnier up in the alpine; colder and depressing under the valley cloud).Thursday: SW wind with about 15 mm of water equivelant (rain low, snow high) and slightly warmer than Wednesday (freezing level rising to 1500 m possible).

Sunday's reports from professional avalanche safety operations almos unanomously reported "No New Avalanches".

Accumulations around 30cm of snow over the past 7 days overlies a variety of old surfaces including hard wind slabs, thin and thick crusts and large surface hoar crystals (found in sheltered areas below treeline). Recent winds from the SW have shifted snow into soft and hard slabs anywhere from 25-40 cm thick on lee slopes. Watch for the next round of wind coming in from the NW resulting in reverse and cross-loading many slopes.Deeper in the pack, not much is new or going on. The early January surface hoar layer is buried down 40-80 cm and seems to be gaining strength. Reports indicate that this layer is mainly unreactive, and would require a large trigger to set it off. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer exists, which is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps by heavy triggers in unsupported, shallow, rocky terrain where more faceting has taken place.