Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Thursday is expected to be cloudy and dry, with light southerly winds and the freezing level around 1800 m. On Friday, light snow begins in the afternoon, becoming moderate overnight and easing on Saturday (15-25 cm total). The freezing level is expected to fall towards 1400 m with this snow. Winds are light to moderate from the S-SW.

Explosives-triggered cornice fall produced some large (size 2-3) avalanches yesterday. A few wind slabs were also triggered by skiers and naturally. In some areas affected by the sun, loose wet avalanches were observed.

Cornices are large and weak. Recently formed storm slabs and wind slabs are generally settling, but may still be reactive to human triggers in specific terrain, and may be triggered by cornice fall. Slopes that receive direct sun are likely to develop a sun crust overnight and become moist and weak by day. Several crusts can be found in the upper metre of the snowpack. A layer of surface hoar buried in early January is down 1-2 m. In most places it is thought to be capped by a thick strong crust. It is becoming increasingly hard to make this layer fail in snowpack tests and triggering an avalanche on it is unlikely.