Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A weak Pacific storm front is expected to reach the region midday Saturday. 3-6cm of new snow is expected by Sunday morning. On Saturday, alpine winds should be light from the west but will increase as the storm progresses. Treeline temperatures are expected to be around -10C on Saturday. On Sunday, light lingering snowfall is expected in the morning and sunny breaks are possible by the afternoon. Alpine winds are expected to be moderate to strong from the southwest and treeline temperatures at expected to be around -5C. A mix of sun and cloud is forecast for Monday.

On Thursday, ski cutting produced isolated soft slab and loose dry avalanches to size 1 in the Castle area. On Wednesday, a natural size 1 wind slab was reported from a steep north-facing hanging snowfield in the Crowsnest Pass area. Also reported was a size 1.5 skier-triggered storm slab avalanche from the Elkford area. This occurred on a north aspect at 1950m elevation. The slab was 10cm thick and released on a layer of surface hoar.

15-30cm of old storm snow is bonding poorly to the old snow surface buried early January. However, east of the divide there has been much less recent snow and much more wind. Extensive scouring has been reported in some areas and and stiff wind slabs exist in lee features at treeline and in the alpine. In areas that have seen less extreme wind, recently formed wind slabs are likely softer, deeper, and may overlie surface hoar, facets, and/or a sun crust which formed at the start of January. The early December crust can be found down around 60-90cm. It is not currently expected to pose an avalanche problem but could wake-up in the future with substantial warming or heavy snow loading.