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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 29th, 2023–Dec 30th, 2023
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Uncertainty around buried weak layers is best managed with conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

There have been very few reports from this region in the past week.

Last weekend, there were numerous reports of natural and skier-triggered persistent slabs, mainly at treeline, up to size 2. Check out this MIN from Powder King on Saturday and this MIN in Torpy on Friday. We suspect these avalanches ran on one of the surface hoar layers in the top meter of the snowpack.

Natural avalanche activity is not expected. However, human-triggering of wind slabs remain possible.

Snowpack Summary

Recent winds have resulted in extensive wind-affected surfaces in the alpine and treeline. Below treeline, a fresh crust has formed either on or close to the surface.

The mid pack contains several layers of note; a layer of surface hoar down 30 to 50 cm, a significant crust from the early December rain event down around 60 cm and a layer of surface hoar down 70 to 120 cm.

Snowpack depth throughout this region is highly variable and as a result the depths of the above mentioned layers are approximate and could be different than what you find in your riding area.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Partially cloudy, no new snow. South alpine wind 40 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 2500 m. above freezing temperatures in the alpine

Saturday

Cloudy with periods of sun. No new snow. South alpine wind, 20 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 2000 m. above freezing temperatures in the alpine

Sunday

Cloudy, snow flurries 1-5 cm. South alpine wind, 20 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Monday

Cloudy, snow flurries 1-5 cm. South alpine wind, 20 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure to steep planar south-facing slopes - especially if they see sunshine.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Use careful route-finding and stick to moderate slope angles with low consequences.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent strong southerly winds have likely formed wind slabs on a variety of aspects on lee features in exposed terrain at treeline and above.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Buried surface hoar may remain rider-triggerable. This layer is of greatest concern around treeline elevation in areas where a significant crust is not found above it.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3