Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 10th, 2018 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet and Persistent Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Warm and SunnyAn early start, caution, and avoidance during the heat of the day is essential for safe travel in avalanche terrain right now.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Glorious diurnal swings in temperatures making it positively spring like in the mountains this weekend. For Sunday, freezing levels cresting to 2100m with sun and little wind. More of the same leading into the week with strong solar effect and continued, rising freezing levels up to 3000m by mid week.

Snowpack Summary

Melt freeze, spring-like cycle beginning in ernest TL and below. Moist surface snow on steep, solar aspects. Less so in the Alpine where freezing levels (up to 2100m) and cooling winds are keeping the surface dry. Facetting has weakened the upr. snowpack in isolated, shaded areas through the forecast region. Wind effect in open areas in ALP and TL.

Avalanche Summary

Report of Avalanche on Polar Circus

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Loose Wet

Late afternoon problem in steep, solar rocky terrain. Also found to be entraining the surrounding, facetted snowpack and will build up volume and speed quickly.

Avoid ice climbs exposed to steep rocky terrain on solar aspects during the middle of the day.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

A cold, facetting, and structurally weak snowpack overlies faceted crystals (well developed in shallow areas).

Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Mar 11th, 2018 5:00PM