Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Monday day and overnight was a period of relative calm, meaning no new snow but a moderate westerly wind kept blowing.TUESDAY:  The next wave of snow is expected to arrive in the morning with 5 to 10 cm expected. There might be more overnight but I'd be surprised if you woke up to more than 15 cm in total by Wednesday morning. Moderate to strong westerly winds and temperatures around -5 to -10 at treeline.WEDNESDAY & Thursday:  The weather pattern is expected to shift to a more southwesterly flow with warmer temperatures and continued bands of precipitation. Timing and intensity of these bands is uncertain but current forecasts suggest accumulations of around 5 cm per day, and freezing levels around 1300 to 1500m.

Numerous wind slabs up to size 2 and loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported from the Lizard Range on Monday running either naturally or triggered by skiers testing small slopes. Explosives triggered storm slabs up to size 2 on northerly aspects.

New wind slabs are building as up to 45 cm of light dry snow fell in the past two days and is being moved around by moderate to strong westerly winds. Snow spillage from steep ground is also loading up fans. In more sheltered locations, you may encounter storm slabs or loose dry sluffing. These upper snowpack problems overlie various old surfaces including old hard wind slabs, crusts, facets and spotty surface hoar (for example February 14 surface hoar is now 60 to 80 cm below the surface).Deeper in the snowpack, the widespread mid-December weak layer sits about 200+ cm deep. This consists of a crust, facets or surface hoar.Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer could be awoken from a thin-spot trigger point, or with a very large load like a cornice fall.