Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Lizard-Flathead.
It's expected to be very warm and sunny Wednesday, alpine temperatures could be as warm as +6 C. The snowpack doesn't like rapid changes like this. Cornice failures and even natural avalanches are possible as we head into the warm spell.
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
An inversion dominates the forecast period bringing warm sunny conditions to the alpine while the valleys remain cool.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom with an inversion starting to set up that brings above freezing temperatures between about 2000 and 3500 m, light variable wind, no precipitation expected.
WEDNESDAY: Clear sunny skies, below freezing in the valley with an inversion in place, above freezing temperatures between about 2000 and 3500 m, light variable wind, no precipitation expected.
THURSDAY: Clear sunny skies, below freezing in the valley with an inversion in place, above freezing temperatures between about 2000 and 3500 m, light to moderate west/southwest wind, no precipitation expected.
FRIDAY: Clear sunny skies, no inversion expected, freezing level holding near valley bottom, light variable wind, no precipitation expected.
Avalanche Summary
Warm temperatures and direct sunshine are coming our way. Natural avalanche activity is possible as things start to warm up.
Observations are limited right now, but there have been no reports of recent avalanches. We appreciate the recent reports submitted to the Mountain Information Network. Keep them coming!
Snowpack Summary
Wind slabs have formed in open terrain as last week's 10 to 20 cm of snow has been redistributed and formed into more cohesive slabs. These slabs may sit above a layer of surface hoar in sheltered terrain and above a hard crust in other areas.
Surface snow conditions are expected to change with forecast sunshine and warmer temperatures up high this week. Surface snow may be moist and reactive on sunny slopes.
Snowpack depths at upper treeline elevations are nearing 100 cm and beginning to exceed the threshold for avalanches, while the snowpack is much thinner in the valleys.Â
The lower snowpack consists of crusts. Weak snow may be developing around these crusts in some areas, which will be a snowpack feature to monitor as the season progresses.
Terrain and Travel
- Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
- Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
- Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
It's anticipated that Wednesday will be unseasonably warm and sunny. Loose wet avalanche activity is expected to be widespread.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Watch for old wind slabs in the alpine, and open "alpine like" features at treeline. These slabs may be poorly bonded to underlying crust and surface hoar layers, although the distribution of these layers is uncertain. These old wind slabs may become reactive with afternoon sun, especially on steeper terrain features and solar aspects.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2