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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 27th, 2021–Jan 28th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Ongoing flurries likely won't amount to much new hazard other than in areas where wind loading occurs. Watch for small but touchy new wind slabs forming in the immediate lee of ridges and exposed terrain features. 

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. Light south winds.

Thursday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light south winds. Alpine high temperatures around -11. 

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -13. 

Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light to moderate southeast winds, increasing over the day and overnight. Alpine high temperatures around -12.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no recent avalanche reports in the region. 

We're continuing to track a layer of surface hoar from early January which has been trending towards unreactive. The most recent activity reported on this layer comes from January 16, when professional operators reported a small (size 1) avalanche releasing 40 cm deep on the Jan 11th surface hoar layer. 

Observers south of Valemount also reported reactivity on the surface hoar buried down 45 cm. They saw shooting cracks and slab activity at 1700m on an easterly aspect. 

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of low density snow has buried a weak layer of surface hoar that is widespread in the region. The surface hoar grew on variable surfaces that include scoured and pressed surfaces in exposed terrain as well as faceted snow in more sheltered terrain. A thin sun crust may be found on steep solar aspects. Below 1600 m, 20-30 cm of snow is settling above a decomposing melt freeze crust. 

A weak of layer of surface hoar from early January can now be found buried 35-60 cm deep. This layer last demonstrated reactivity over a week ago (Jan 16) in the south of the region near Valemount. It is most suspect in sheltered, open slopes at and below treeline. Although results from recent snowpack tests show increasingly resistant results (check out this MIN from near Barkerville), slope-specific assessment is warranted. 

Deeper in the snowpack, a couple of older persistent weak layers may still be identifiable from late and early December, consisting of surface hoar and a crust with faceted snow and buried anywhere from 70-150 cm deep. Prolonged periods of inactivity and unreactive snowpack test results suggest that these layers have trended towards dormancy. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

As flurries continue, small new wind slabs may form in leeward pockets at ridgecrests and around exposed terrain features.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5