Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2016–Jan 1st, 2017

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Watch for signs of reverse loading as the wind switches directions. Recent loading has also potentially awakened persistent weak layers, so conservative terrain selection remains critical.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods, 30-40 km/h northeast winds, alpine temperatures around -20.MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, light northeast winds, alpine temperatures around -20.TUESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods, 20-30 km/h northeast winds, alpine temperatures around -15.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Saturday. On Friday, a skier triggered avalanche was reported in the Barkerville area that released on weak facets buried 30 cm deep (likely the mid-December layer).On Sunday, expect the recent storm snow to be most reactive in wind exposed terrain where moderate winds are forming fresh wind slabs. Several signs are indicating persistent slab avalanches releasing on the mid-December facets are becoming more likely in parts of the region with thinner snowpacks.

Snowpack Summary

Between 40 and 80 cm of new low density snow has fallen over the past week. Shifting winds are creating fresh and touchy wind slabs on a variety of aspects in exposed high elevation terrain. A mid-December interface can be found buried 50-100 cm deep and consists of faceted (sugary) crystals and/or surface hoar. The slab above this layer has recently been reactive to skier triggers in thin snowpack areas throughout the region. The layer is less of a concern in deep snowpack areas, but still deserves some investigation before pushing into steeper terrain. The lower snowpack is well consolidated and features a thick rain crust near the ground.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The recent storm snow is being redistributed by moderate winds to form touchy wind slabs at higher elevations. Wind slabs could potentially step down to the mid-December persistent weak layer in areas with thinner snowpacks.

If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Avoids areas where the surface snow feels stiff or slabby.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

50-100 cm of snow sits above a weak layer of facets from mid-December and continues to be reactive in parts of the region that have thinner snowpacks.

Avoid regrouping in runout zones.Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3