Avalanche Forecast

Fair

Warm air that has been trapped in the alpine should move out and let the alpine cool down to about -8 by Thursday morning. The freezing level should also drop down to valley bottoms overnight, and stay there throughout the forecast period. Moderate Northwest winds overnight should become light Northerly by Thursday morning. Light winds, cooling temperatures, and clearing skies are expected during the day Thursday. Mostly overcast with light Southerly winds on Friday. Flurries beginning Friday evening and becoming light snow by Saturday morning. Saturday should be overcast with flurries or light snow combined with moderate Southerly winds.

Natural cornice fall resulted in a size 2.5 avalanche and did not trigger the persistent weak layer. Natural storm slab avalanche activity probably ended on Wednesday, with human triggering the storm slab or the persistent weak layer still very likely.

After the storm we have been left with a new storm slab that is 40-60 cm thick and it is sitting above a mix of old surfaces including wind slabs, old storm slabs, and pockets of surface hoar. Warm air in the alpine and at treeline has settled the new storm slab into a cohesive slab that is easier to trigger and may allow for longer fracture propagations. Some areas have experienced strong Westerly winds that may have developed new windslabs by transporting the new snow. Below the storm slab there is a weak layer of surface hoar and crust that was buried in mid-December that continues to be a concern for human triggering. The mid-December weak layer may be buried up to 100 cm deep and continues to give easy or moderate sudden planar results in snow profile tests. Avalanches releasing on this layer may be large and destructive.