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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 1st, 2012–Dec 2nd, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A broad and persistent low pressure center off the BC coast and a steady southwesterly flow over the province will maintain mild temperatures and light to moderate precipitation for the next few days.Sunday: Light to locally moderate snowfall – 5-10 cm, the freezing level is around 800 m, winds are light from the south. Monday: Light snowfall – 5-10 cm, the freezing level is around 800 m, winds are light to moderate from the southwest. Tuesday: Moderate precipitation, the freezing level should jump to 1200-1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

There was one report late last week of a size 2.5 natural avalanche that likely released on the early November persistent weak layer. There are no other recent observations. We welcome all observations at forecaster@avalanche.ca.

Snowpack Summary

A recently buried surface hoar layer is now down around 30-50 cm. We have limited information on the extent and sensitivity of this layer in this region. Watch for clues of instability like whumpfing or cracking and recent avalanches. There may be another thin buried surface hoar layer down about 115 cm. As well, the November rain crust now exists over 125cm down in some locations and may exist in combination with facets. These layers seems to have been unreactive in recent days, but may have the potential to 'wake-up' with additional loading.Average snow depths at treeline seem to be between 140cm and 170cm. In general, snowpack data is sparse in this region and significant variations likely exist from one drainage to another. In short, digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection. Any observations from the field are welcome at forecaster@avalanche.ca.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Continued snow and wind may overload a weak layer of surface hoar and/or a crust, now down 30-40 cm. The size and likelihood of avalanches should increase throughout the forecast period.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Although the likelihood of a release is low, the consequences of a persistent slab release could be significant. These layers may wake-up with additional loading.
Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6