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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 11th, 2013–Mar 12th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Cariboos.

A warm and wet storm is developing. Strong winds, a heavy storm load, and rising temperatures are increasing the avalanche danger.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Tuesday:  A warm front is forecast to move into the interior overnight bringing cloud and strong Southwest winds. Moderate snow fall amounts are expected to begin by early morning. Freezing levels are expected to rise to about 1000 metres.Wednesday:  Continued moderate precipitation overnight becoming heavy during the day combined with strong Southwest winds as the cold arctic air to the North collides with the warm front.Thursday: Unsettled weather with continued light to moderate precipitation and moderate Westerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

One natural cornice fall was reported that released size 2.0 from a Northeast aspect in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

There is a thin layer of new snow and wind transported snow that is covering a widespread layer of surface hoar that developed during the recent clear weather. Sun crusts also developed during the clear weather on solar aspects up to about 2000 metres. Some areas had strong winds before the surface hoar was buried, so the distribution may be specific to sheltered and shaded terrain features. There is still concern for the buried weak layer of surface hoar from February 12th that is now down more than a metre in most places. The forecast new load of snow and wind may overload this deeply buried weak layer in areas that did not slide after the last storm.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and wind transported snow are expected to develop a new storm slab which may be above a weak layer of surface hoar and/or a sun crust.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A weak layer of surface hoar buried down about 100-150 cm (February 12th layer) may be triggered by the new load of storm snow or by avalanches in motion.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6