Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with light snow bringing 1-3cm by late afternoon and another 5cm overnight. Freezing levels starting near valley bottoms, but warm air may still be lingering in some valleys, and warming associated with the onset of precipitation could push freezing levels as high as 2000m by late afternoon, with moderate to strong southerly winds. SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy with continued light snowfall bringing another 1-3cm of accumulation. Freezing levels should drop to 1600m and winds are expected to be light to moderate from the southwest. SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with continued light flurries possible. Freezing levels should drop to valley bottoms and winds are expected to be light from the southwest.

Reports from Tuesday include numerous natural wind slab avalanche up to Size 2.5 from steep cross-loaded south aspects running to valley floor. One natural persistent slab avalanche was also observed, with a report of a Size 3 that run on the early January surface hoar down 120cm. No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday, but explosive controlled cornices on Thursday produced one 50cm thick Size 2 slab avalanche, and one 150cm thick Size 3 avalanche on northeast facing alpine slopes.

A supportive surface crust is likely in most places aside from shaded aspects at treeline elevations, and lower elevations that are under melt-freeze conditions. New surface hoar could be covered by a skiff of fresh snow. This recently buried surface hoar is likely larger on sheltered shady slopes, but could be more sensitive where it is sitting on a crust. Wind slabs and storm snow weaknesses in the upper 50cm or so, remain sensitive. Avalanche professionals are still monitoring three buried surface hoar layers in the upper 120 cm, with recent reports of easy to moderate sudden results down 120cm where surface hoar was sitting on a sun-crust.