Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 2nd, 2014 8:19AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Monday: Light snowfall becoming moderate overnight / Moderate to strong southerly winds / Freezing level at 1100mTuesday: Moderate snowfall becoming light by the afternoon / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at surfaceWednesday: Mix of sun and cloud with a possibility of flurries / Light ridgetop winds / Freezing level at surface

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 2-2.5 sled-triggered slab avalanches occurred in the Valemount area over the last week. The February 10th interface was the culprit in these events. Isolated reports of remotely triggered avalanches in neighbouring regions also suggest that large slab avalanches on the February 10th interface are still a real possibility.

Snowpack Summary

Light amounts of new snow are expected to overlie weak surface hoar in sheltered areas, a sun crust on solar aspects and thin wind slabs in exposed terrain. These new accumulations are likely to be reactive as wind slab in pockets of exposed terrain.The big news remains a mix of weak surfaces which were buried on February 10th. This persistent interface lies up to a metre below the surface, and includes surface hoar, well developed facets and a mix of hard surfaces which remain widespread at all aspects and elevations. Although natural avalanche activity has tapered-off at this interface, destructive avalanches are still a very real concern with ongoing reports of rider-triggering and sudden snowpack test result results. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated. Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

A deep, dense slab overlies a variety of weak layers and is still touchy in some areas. Put the odds in your favour by avoiding steep, unsupported slopes, areas with a thin or variable snowpack, or terrain with a significant overhead hazard

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong winds are expected to blow new accumulations into pockets of wind slab in exposed lee terrain. These new accumulations will overlie existing thin wind slabs which have been reactive in recent days.

Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.>The recent snow may now be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 3rd, 2014 2:00PM