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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2012–Jan 18th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The region remains under the influence of a cold and mostly dry Arctic Air mass. Wednesday brings light winds out of the North under clear skies. A daytime H of -19 is expected at 1500m with an overnight low of -32. Thursday looks to be more of the same. The pattern changes a bit on Friday as a frontal system makes its way inland, but at the moment the northern extent of the system is uncertain. Those details should tighten up as we get closer to the weekend.

Avalanche Summary

One small & shallow slab avalanche was reported from the region Monday. Reports indicate that skier triggered loose snow avalanches are still possible, but, loose snow avalanche activity has slowed way down.

Snowpack Summary

The weekend storm delivered 20 - 40 cm of snow to the region. Initially, there was a widespread cycle of loose dry avalanches running to size 2, but that kind of activity has dropped off. The snowpack is tightening up now, and in most places you'll find well settled storm snow. The exception is terrain immediately lee of ridge crest where you will likely find a soft slab that is capable of avalanches to size 2. If the wind picks up there is plenty of snow available for transport which will quickly be formed into wind slabs. But, all signs point to continued low winds through at least Thursday.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Watch for windslabs on the immediate lee of ridge crests. While it's not forecasted, moderate sustained winds would quickly form dangerous wind slabs & bump the danger to Considerable. Stay alert for changing conditions.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Cornices

Cornices are massive in many locations, stay well back from ridge crests and plan your travels so that you minimize exposure to these large unsupported masses of snow. Falling cornices have the potential to trigger large destructive avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5