Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Friday: Light snowfall (2-5cm through the day), becoming more intense on Friday night. Freezing level near valley floor, rising at night. Saturday: Moderate snow, perhaps 20cm. Freezing level gradually rising to around 1000m. Strong westerly winds.Sunday: Freezing level continuing to rise, peaking at 2000m. Moderate precipitation. Strong westerly winds. A cold front arrives on Sunday night.

Avalanche activity has slowed down over the last two days, with only sporadic reports of avalanches. On Thursday, a cornice fall triggered a size 2 slab on a north aspect, which failed on the Feb 16. weakness. On Wednesday, numerous size 2-3 avalanches ran naturally, or with a remote trigger, on a variety of slopes. Most failed on an upper snowpack persistent weak layer. Natural avalanche activity is likely to increase again with this weekend's incoming weather.

Down-flowing winds have created localized new wind slabs. Recent storm snow has become generally less reactive above the Feb 16. surface hoar layer and the early Feb. interface, however these layers are still exhibiting sudden planar ("pops") results in snowpack tests. The early Feb. interface consists of surface hoar (observed into the alpine, but most commonly found at and below treeline) and/or a crust (found on solar aspects, and on all aspects below about 1600m). These weaknesses are tricky to manage, as they are still touchy in certain locations, but the distribution of them is variable, so it's hard to know exactly which slopes are concealing these layers. Large cornices loom in some areas. Shallow snowpack areas may still harbour basal facets. The current snow surface is developing spotty surface hoar, surface faceting and sun crusts, which may bond poorly with incoming snow this weekend.