Saturday's danger ratings are based on colder conditions in the alpine. If solar radiation is beyond forecast levels, the avalanche danger in the alpine may increase quickly.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Saturday: light snowfall / light to moderate northwesterly winds / freezing level at 1600m Sunday: a mix of sun and cloud / light and variable winds / freezing level at 1700m Monday: light snowfall / light to moderate southwesterly winds / freezing level at 1900m
Avalanche Summary
There was a natural wet avalanche cycle to size 3 on Thursday or Friday that occurred in response to warm temperatures and intermittent solar radiation. I expect ongoing wet snow instabilities throughout the weekend, especially at lower elevations.
Snowpack Summary
Very warm temperatures have dominated the region in recent days and all but the highest, north-facing slopes saw moist to wet surface conditions. As of Thursday morning, slightly cooler temperatures have allowed light amounts of new snow to fall above about 2000m while rain continued to penetrate and weaken the snowpack at lower elevations. Up to 60cm below the surface, you might find a weak crust interface in the alpine and at treeline. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 200 cm, although avalanches releasing on this layer represent a very low probability-high consequence scenario. Cornices in the region are very large. With spring temperatures, these are more likely to become weak and fail. They could provide a large enough trigger to release deep layers on slopes below.
