Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A warm storm hits the region on Saturday. Models are currently showing 15-30mm of precipitation but freezing levels are forecast to stay around 1800m during the day so much of it will fall as rain. Freezing levels are forecast to drop down to below 1000m by Sunday morning so the rain may switch to snow at the end of the storm. Alpine winds are forecast to be strong during the storm and ease by Sunday morning. On Sunday, a mix of sun and cloud is expected with freezing levels around 1000-1500m and light-to-moderate alpine winds. On Monday, unsettled conditions are expected as a weak storm system passes to the south of the region.

On Thursday, natural, skier-triggered, and explosive-triggered avalanches were reported up to size 2.5. Much of this activity is releasing on the mid-February layer down 30-60cm. On Wednesday, several natural size 2 avalanches were reported but no details were provided. A skier remote avalanche was also reported to have been triggered from 20m away. Finally, ski cuts released several small pockets of wind slab which were overlying the crust/facet layer. Saturday's storm is expected to quickly build touchy new wind slabs where the precipitation falls as snow. At lower elevations where the precipitation falls as rain, loose wet avalanches can be expected. The major question and my biggest concern is whether deeply buried persistent weaknesses will wake-up with the new loading. These persistent weak layers could have the potential to result in some very large persistent slab avalanches. However, this is probably a low probability, high consequence type of problem.

A moist snow surface has been reported to around 2500m on solar aspects and around 2000m on north aspects. Strong winds will continue to build wind slabs in leeward terrain features in the alpine. Up to 60cm of snow sits over a weak facet/crust layer that was buried in mid-February. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer (over 1m deep) and the mid-January surface hoar (around 1.5m deep) have gained significant strength and have been dormant for several weeks but now have the potential to wake-up with the current warm temperatures and new storm loading.