Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 3rd, 2014–Dec 4th, 2014

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Obvious signs of avalanche danger may be decreasing, but the snowpack remains capable of producing surprisingly large avalanches.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Cold . Light flurries at most. Light winds. Friday: Light snow. Winds increasing to moderate SW. Staying cool. Saturday: Light snow. Ridgetop winds increasing to strong SW. Freezing level rising to around 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

We haven't had any new reports of avalanche activity. This may be due to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. If you have any observations, please send them to [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 100cm of recent storm snow sits on weak crystals which formed throughout early and mid-November. These weak crystals include facets on a hard rain crust, and surface hoar (which may also sit on a crust on steep southerly slopes). Snowpack data from the Cariboo region is very limited at the moment, but I expect these layers are reacting similarly to the North Selkirk/Monashees because the formation conditions were generally the same. Recent snowpack tests suggest these layers can still be human triggered, and if triggered, are capable of producing wide propagations and large avalanches. Recent variable winds may have redistributed surface snow creating dense wind slabs in exposed terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Up to 100cm of recent snow overlies weak crystals which are most reactive at higher elevations. Triggering may have become less likely; however, avalanches on this layer would be large and destructive.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>Conditions may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5