Avalanche Forecast

Low - Due to the number of field observations on Saturday

Snowfall is expected to continue Saturday overnight and into Sunday. Weather models are currently showing another 20-30cm of snowfall for the south of the region by the end of the storm. The north of the region can expect less than half that amount. On Sunday, treeline temperatures are expected to be around -10C and alpine winds are forecast to be moderate from the southwest switching to northwest in the afternoon. On Monday, dry conditions are expected with a mix of sun and cloud. Treeline temperatures are expected to be around -15C and alpine winds should be light from the north. Sunny, dry, and cold conditions are currently expected for Tuesday.

Recent field observations have been limited and no new avalanches have been reported but wind slabs formation was reported from the strong northeast outflow winds on Thursday and Friday. New snowfall and moderate southwest winds Saturday overnight and Sunday will likely form new wind slabs in exposed terrain, especially in the south of the region. Winds slabs should be expected on all aspects in wind exposed terrain. If parts of the region get more than 30cm of new snow, a more widespread storm slab problem is possible.

The storm is bringing light amounts of new snow with moderate winds. These conditions will continue to form wind slabs in exposed terrain throughout the region. Southern parts of the region could see larger accumulations and storm slab formation is possible by the end of the storm on Sunday. The cold arctic air has left a complex surface for this new snow to fall onto. Changing wind directions over the past week have formed wind slabs on various aspects in exposed terrain. Small 2-3mm surface hoar has been reported throughout the region in sheltered terrain and sits above loose faceted snow. This structure will likely become weak when loaded by new snow or wind. In the Duffey area, another small surface hoar layer can be found 20cm deep and may become reactive with new loading. The mid-pack is generally well settled down to a widespread crust near the bottom of the snowpack. Recent reports suggest facets have formed above the crust. Although tests are indicating the layer is unreactive, it may be possible to trigger this layer in shallow rocky start zones. Total snowpack depths are 80-130cm at treeline, and significantly less below treeline.