Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to whether buried persistent weak layers become active, triggering avalanches, with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Thursday night: Cloudy, 5 to 10 cm of snow, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C.

Friday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, southwest winds increasing to strong by end of day, freezing level 1300 m.

Saturday: Cloudy, 25-30 cm of snow, light southwest winds, freezing level 1000 m.

Sunday: Mostly clear, light southwest winds, freezing level 1000 m. 

On Wednesday, a large (size 2) human-triggered avalanche releasing on the February 22 surface hoar was reported. Small point releases in steep rocky south facing terrain around treeline have been recently observed. 

Reports from earlier in the week include a natural storm and wind slab avalanche cycle up to size 2, primarily on northeast aspects in the alpine and upper treeline, releasing on the February 22 interface. This MIN post includes a photo of a skier triggered wind slab.

By Friday afternoon, 15-25 cm of forecast snow is expected to form a new layer of concern. Strong winds from the southwest will likely drift the new snow into touchy wind slabs on lee features and bring cornices to their breaking point. Buried 40-70 cm deep, a weak layer of near surface facets facets or surface hoar from February 22 still lingers and has recently shown reactivity.

Faceted snow and crusts exist near the base of the snowpack in much of the region. This layer is has been dormant recently.

• Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
• Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
• Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.