Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 18th, 2020 3:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
ghelgeson,
Avalanche Canada
Give the storm snow a few days to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain. Storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering, especially near ridge crest.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.
Weather Forecast
After a very stormy period the outlook is rather dry as temperatures begin to warm though the weekend.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, moderate to strong west/southwest wind, trace of snow possible.
SUNDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate to strong south/southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.
MONDAY: A few clouds, freezing level rising dramatically, perhaps as high as 2000 m, light southwest wind at lower elevations, strong southwest wind at ridgetop, no significant precipitation
TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level lowering to about 1000 m, light southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.
Avalanche Summary
Reports of avalanche activity over the past couple weeks have been steady, with each substantial snowfall accompanied by storm slab activity. On Friday, a widespread natural storm slab cycle was observed size 1.5-2.5 on the north end of the Lizard range, while only very thin 5-10 cm slabs were observed to have run during the storm at the south end of the range.
Looking forward, solar triggering of new snow can be expected amid sun exposure and warming temperatures, especially on steep south facing slopes. Roller balls and pin wheeling are good indicators of impending solar induced avalanche activity.
Snowpack Summary
The region has received about 65 cm of snow in the last three days and almost 120 cm of snow in the last week. The recent storm snow is deep, soft and settling in the mild temperatures. Slight wind affect may be observed in exposed alpine features.
Several crust layers exist in the mid snowpack as a result of previous warming and rain events. These have not been identified as bed surfaces or failure planes in recent avalanche activity.
The bottom 10-20 cm of the snowpack consists of faceted snow and decomposing crusts. Although inherently weak, this basal layer has not been an active avalanche problem in our region for several weeks.
Terrain and Travel
- Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
- Give the new snow time to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain.
- Brief periods of sun could quickly initiate natural avalanche activity.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering, especially in wind loaded pockets in exposed alpine terrain features. When the sun comes on Monday we'll need to keep in mind that new snow is especially sensitive to solar triggering.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 19th, 2020 5:00PM
