Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 25th, 2016 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

As the hazard increases be prepared to give any avalanche terrain a wide berth as slides could be expected to travel fast and further then expected.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Weather models have all come to an agreement, it's still winter. As such, predictions of upwards of 15-25cms are expected in the forecast region starting tuesday afternoon and into the weekend. This is accompanied by transport speed winds (20+ kph). Only time will tell but this could significantly overload the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

So much will depend on the forecasted snow coming Tuesday evening. Any new snow will be sitting and/or transported onto weak sandwiched wind slab layers on the top 25 cms of the existing snowpack. These are moderately reactive on a already weaken, faceted snowpack at exposed tree line and alpine features.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, west of Jasper townsite and just outside the boundary of the park, a size 2 skier accidental happened in the afternoon. In an established slide path, a pair of skiers were crossing the path when they heard a whumph. One skier was able to ski to the side but a second skier was caught and rode it out for 70ms. Average crown depth 75cms.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Previously buried windslabs will likely get overloaded quickly in any area where transport is happening in realtime. Users have to be very cautious with overhead hazards when traveling in or near avalanche terrain.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches should be expected in steep terrain, and may entrain significant amounts of snow in gully features.

On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 26th, 2016 4:00PM