Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Past Weather
Santa brought us the great gift of snow. Three big storms have significantly increased our snowpack depth. Temperatures hovered around the 0 to -1 degree mark so it was not blower powder, but hey we will take it! Strong winds came from the SW to SE so the alpine and ridgetops have been affected, but down in the trees things have been pretty darn fantastic.
Weather Forecast
Things settle down for a couple days (Monday Tuesday), but then the next big storm system hits starting later in the day/early evening Tuesday. We may see some sunny breaks Monday into early Tuesday with mild temps during the day and a clear cold at night in between. This may create a crust on the snow surface which will be a potential sliding layer for the snow walloping coming Tuesday night into Wednesday. Monday: a trace to 10 cm of new snow Sunday night into Monday morning then clearing midday , winds light from variable directions, temps for 1500 m -1 to +1, freezing level 1000 m dropping to sea level in the evening. Tuesday: a trace to no new snow, winds light S increasing to strong SE to SW as the day goes on, temps for 1500 m +2 to -3, freezing level 900 to 200 m. Wednesday: 30 to 50 mm of precip with all falling as snow at upper elevations and a potential for a rain snow mix for lower (1 mm of precip is equal to 1 mm of rain, 1 mm of precip in the form of snow is approx 1 cm of snow. So 30 to 50 mm could be a heck of a lot of new snow! winds strong SE to SW, temps for 1500 m +2 to -1, freezing level 1300 to 700 m.
Terrain Advice
Watch steep direct solar slopes if things start to warm up when the sun comes out. The heat may increase the chance of loose wet avalanches. Pinwheels and tree bombs are a hint its getting dangerous. Watch for shooting cracks in the snow as this is a significant sign of a weak dangerous layer underfoot. Avoid all avalanche terrain when the rating is high for an elevation band and travel when the rating is considerable is certainly on the sketchy side of things as well. A good old saying is add the words "chance of death" after the danger/hazard rating word. As in "considerable chance of death"....
Snowpack Summary
Well the past three days did not disappoint for new x mas snowfall. There was an average of 20 to 30 cm of new snow for most zones with Mt Washington getting a whopping 50 cm. The north got the least with Cain hitting 11 cm.
Snowpack Details
- Surface: A bit of snow Sunday night over a thin crust at higher elevations and lower down moist snow capping the x mas snow.
- Upper: New x mas storm snow from the past three days 11 cm all the way to 50 cm with some signs of weak layers within
- Mid: Well settled with some old crusts
- Lower: Well settled
Confidence
High - Weather models in agreement and good field data.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1