Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to whether buried persistent weak layers become active, triggering avalanches, with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Friday: Snow amounts 5 cm with alpine temperatures near -5. Ridgetop wind strong from the southwest and freezing levels valley bottom.

Saturday: Snow 5-10 cm with alpine temperatures near -7. Strong wind from the West and freezing levels 900 m.

Sunday: Snow amounts 10-20 cm. Alpine temperatures -1 and freezing levels 2000 m. Ridgetop wind 20-85Km/hr wind from the southwest. 

On Thursday, a natural size 2 storm slab from NE alpine terrain was reported. As per the report, this slab likely failed on Wednesday. On Thursday, explosives were able to trigger slabs up to size 2 in the alpine and a size 1.5 at treeline.

Please consider sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network. Thank you to those that have already submitted this winter.

Strong wind from the southwest and up to 30 cm of new snow will likely build reactive storm slabs. The recent storm snow accumulations bring 40-60 cm above the early December crust which may have persistent weak, and facetted crystals above and below it. With slab cohesion adding stress and load on that interface, we may see this persistent slab avalanche problem come to life.

Deeper in the snowpack are two hard melt-freeze crusts that formed in November. The concern would be if there were weak faceted grains around the crust, but there is uncertainty if and where in the region this may be a problem. Without any recent avalanche activity, it appears that this layer is dormant for the time being.

• Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
• Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
• Choose relatively conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.