Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear, light variable winds, alpine temperatures dropping to -18 C.

Thursday: Mainly sunny, light northeast winds, alpine high temperatures around -14 C. 

Friday: Mainly sunny, light north winds, alpine high temperatures around -15 C.

Saturday: Increasing cloud, light variable winds, alpine high temperatures around -16 C. 

Recent strong west winds have formed wind slabs in lee features at upper elevations that may be possible to human trigger. On Sunday, observers reported human-triggered avalanches in wind-stiffened snow in the south of the region (check out the MIN reports here and here). Cornices may be reaching their breaking point and can act as triggers on slopes below. 

On Saturday, professional operators reported a small (size 1) avalanche releasing 40 cm deep on the Jan 11th surface hoar layer. Observers south of Valemount also reported reactivity on the surface hoar buried down 45 cm. They saw both shooting cracks and slab activity at 1700m on an easterly aspect. 

Since field observations in this region are limited, please consider submitting your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Winds have varied in speed and direction over the past few days and have redistributed the 10-25 cm of snow that fell over the weekend into a tricky loading pattern. Ongoing snow and wind over the past week have contributed to notable cornice growth. A sun crust may be forming on steep solar aspects.

40-60 cm of snow from the past week has buried a weak of layer of surface hoar that showed reactivity over the weekend from observers in the south of the region. There are few observations from the northern parts of the region, so the distribution and sensitivity of this layer is uncertain. This persistent weak layer is most suspect in sheltered, open slopes at and below treeline. Don't let the benign weather lure you into complacency. While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is decreasing, the consequences of getting caught in one of these avalanches are significant. This presents a deceptive low probability/high consequence scenario that requires careful assessment.

A couple of older persistent weak layers exist in the mid to lower snowpack. The distribution of these layers is variable, but they follow a similar pattern to the layer discussed above. The upper layer from late December, down about 70-120 cm, consists of spotty surface hoar at shaded treeline and below treeline elevations. The lower layer from early December buried 150 cm deep consists of a combination of decomposing surface hoar with a crust and faceted snow. This layer is most prevalent in areas near Valemount. Observations from adjacent regions show increasingly unreactive results, suggesting a trend towards dormancy.

• Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.
• Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.