Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Expect 10-20cm of new snow to fall between Friday night and Saturday. An additional 5cm may fall on Sunday, while isolated flurries and sunny breaks are forecast for Monday. Winds on Saturday will be strong from the southwest, and then drop to light and northwesterly for Sunday and Monday. Freezing levels should hover between 500-700m for the entire forecast period.

Backcountry avalanche observations were extremely limited during this week's storm; however, wet slab, loose wet and storm slab avalanches to size 3.5 were noted. I'm sure the storm also triggered a few persistent slab avalanches. We'll know more about that as operators are able to get out and make observations over the next few days. Moving forward, there will likely be a shift to wind slab activity with wind and snow forecast for the weekend.

On Wednesday night and Thursday morning, heavy snowfall and strong winds continued to form deep and dense storm slabs in high elevation terrain and cause substantial cornice growth. The snow line fluctuated a great deal during the storm which dropped around 80mm of precipitation throughout the region. At treeline and below, heavy rain saturated the snowpack. With forecast cooling, slopes at these elevation bands may now be sporting a hard crust. Where it still exists, the mid-January surface hoar layer is between 100 and 180 cm below the surface. The combination of heavy storm loading and warm temperatures has likely flushed out this weak layer in most areas. In the wake of the storm, there will still be some uncertainty regarding the reactivity and distribution of this destructive persistent avalanche problem, especially at high elevations in the north of the region where continued reactivity at this interface has been observed. New snow and wind on Friday night and Saturday will form new wind slabs in high elevation lee terrain.