Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2014–Dec 16th, 2014

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

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Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A weak system will spread light snowfall and moderate southwest winds to the region on Tuesday. On Wednesday expect a mix of sun and cloud and light ridgetop winds. By late Thursday a more intense frontal system should impact the region bringing steady snowfall. Freezing levels should hover around 1000m for the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

The recent prolonged storm dropped 100-200 mm of water, with fluctuating freezing levels bringing rain at times to alpine elevations. Snow also accumulated above treeline, leading to deep wind slabs. Storm and winds slabs may remain problematic for the short term. However, my bigger concern is a buried crust/facet layer which formed in November and is now down 1-2 m. This woke up with the recent storm snow loading and has the potential for deep slabs and wide propagations, and does not inspire huge confidence. The likelihood of triggering this beast is dropping, however the consequences remain high.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Although they've become more difficult to trigger, avalanches on deeply buried crystals would likely be destructive in nature. Use extra caution on steep, unsupported alpine terrain.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5