Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
A warm storm brings strong wind and sticky snow to the alpine, with rain at lower elevations. Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
Saturday night: Up to 5 cm snow turning to rain at lower elevations. Southwest winds building to strong. Alpine temperature around -2 C. Freezing level rising to 2500 m by morning.
Sunday: Wet flurries and rain, 5-10 mm in most areas with local enhancements possible up to 20 mm. Strong southwest wind gusting extreme. Alpine temperature high 0 C. Freezing level dropping 2500 to 2000 m.
Monday: Flurries, clearing late in the afternoon. Moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperature high 0 C. Freezing level 2000 m.
Tuesday: Isolated flurries. Moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperature high 0 C. Freezing level 1800 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, forecasters in neighboring Kananaskis Country reported a size 1.5 wind slab avalanche which failed naturally on a NW aspect around 2200 m. Although outside the South Rockies, we have a similar snowpack in our region and may see similar avalanche characteristics.
Reports in the region remain limited. If you go out in the mountains, please post your observations and/or photos to the Mountain Information Network!Â
Snowpack Summary
New snow arriving Sunday in the alpine is expected to fall warm, sticky and windswept. At lower elevations, a mix of wet snow and rain falls on wind-affected surfaces. Expect to find anything from bare rock to dense wind slab along ridgelines and in open terrain.
Two crusts are found in the snowpack: the mid-November rain crust buried 20-30 cm and reported up to 2100 m, and a crust from early November found at the bottom of the snowpack up to 2300 m, this crust is being to break down and facet.
Snowpack depths range from 40-150 cm at treeline elevations. Higher elevations may hold a deeper snowpack, but also be more heavily impacted from recent winds. Snowpack depths decrease rapidly below 1900 m.
Early season hazards are very real right now, be wary of thin/shallow snowpacks, rocks, stumps, creeks, and other sharks hidden under fresh snow.
Terrain and Travel
- Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
- Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
New snow arrives with wind in the alpine. While warm temperatures are likely helping to stabilize new and existing wind slabs, approach wind loaded lees with caution.
Areas that receive more than 20 mm of rainfall on snow may be prone to small loose wet avalanche activity treeline and below.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5