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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 27th, 2021–Mar 28th, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

New snow and wind continue to build deep, reactive storm slabs. Stick to simple, low angle and wind-sheltered terrain free of overhead hazard.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: 5-15 cm new snow. Southwest wind increasing 60-80 km/h. Freezing level 1500 m. Alpine temperature -5.

Sunday: 10-20 cm new snow. Southwest wind easing through the day to 30 km/h. Freezing level dropping to 1000 m. Alpine temperature -10.

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud. 30 km/h northwest wind. Freezing level valley bottom. Alpine temperature -13.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud. 30 km/h northwest wind. Freezing level 1400 m. Alpine temperature -8.

Avalanche Summary

We have no reports of avalanche activity since Wednesday's storm when there were a few reports of natural and human triggered storm slab avalanches. These slabs have likely stabilized since then, but new storm slabs will be a concern above 1500 m this weekend. Wet loose avalanches will also be possible at below treeline elevations.

Snowpack Summary

With 5-20 cm of new snow forecast per 12 hour period, by Sunday afternoon you could see 30 to 60 cm of fresh snow. Accompanied by strong wind, this new snow will likely form touchy slabs. The new snow buries old stubborn slabs at upper elevations and a crust below treeline. Recent warm weather patterns have helped old persistent weak layers heal. We were previously concerned about a facet layer from the mid-February cold snap that resulted in few large cornice triggered avalanches in the first half of March (and is now 150 cm deep), but at this point the important avalanche problems just involve the upper snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Conservative terrain selection is critical, choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
  • Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and wind continue to build touchy storm slabs. Their size and sensitivity to triggering will increase throughout the day. Natural avalanches will be very likely in the alpine and on steep wind loaded slopes at treeline.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Almost Certain

Expected Size: 1 - 2