Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 11th, 2016 4:59PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada jsmith, Avalanche Canada

Wind is the major weather factor to keep a close eye on. Even moderate wind speeds can quickly build fresh wind slabs reactive to human triggers.

Summary

Confidence

Low - Wind speed and direction is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate westerly winds / High of -20 C.Tuesday: Mostly sunny / Light northwesterly winds / High of -20 C. Wednesday: Sunny / Light northwesterly winds / High of -17 C.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche observations have been reported in this region, however, the likelihood of human triggered avalanches may increase if the winds increase to moderate.

Snowpack Summary

If the winds increase to moderate Sunday night, there may be fresh wind slabs in lee features below ridge tops in the alpine. The cold temperatures will have promoted surface faceting, which probably means the top layer of snow is soft in sheltered areas. Treeline snow depths around Elkford are only around 60 cm. I suspect they are slightly higher in places like the Flathead, but generally conditions are lean. Threshold snow depths for avalanches have been exceeded in the alpine and at treeline, but not below treeline. In shallow areas, the snowpack is most likely facetted (sugary) throughout, and any crusts have probably broken down already. In deeper areas, you can probably find the mid-November crust buried under half a metre or so of snow. Early season hazards such as stumps, rocks, and open creeks are still a major concern.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
If the winds increase and start to move snow around, thin wind slabs may form on the lee sides of ridges.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 12th, 2016 2:00PM