Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 7th, 2015 7:59AM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs, Loose Wet and Deep Persistent Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeSummary
Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
The pineapple express will persist for Sunday and Monday, but it will lose much of its "punch". A warm, dry ridge will then build for Tuesday. Sunday: Light precipitation / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 2000m Monday: 5-10cm of snow at higher elevations / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at valley bottom with a chance of an inversion Monday: A mix of sun and cloud / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at valley bottom with a chance of an inversion
Avalanche Summary
Observations have been extremely limited in recent days. That said, several storm slab avalanches to size 2.5 were reported in the south of the region on Friday. I get the feeling this was just the tip of the iceberg. Triggering storm slabs will remain a concern at higher elevations for the next few days. At lower elevations where precipitation has fallen as rain, I would expect ongoing loose wet and wet slab avalanche activity.
Snowpack Summary
In the alpine, up to 50cm of moist, dense snow overlies a touchy crust/surface hoar layer which was formed in late January. These new snow accumulations have been pushed by strong southwest winds into much deeper deposits in upper elevation lee terrain. At lower elevations very heavy rain has saturated the snowpack. I'm sure cornices are large and fragile.The sustained rain should continue to break down the late January crust, increasing the possibility of avalanches stepping down to deeper weak layers. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar combo is found down 50 - 95 cm. Rain and/or heavy storm loading could spark renewed activity at this interface with the potential for very large avalanches.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 8th, 2015 2:00PM