Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 2nd, 2014 9:54AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

slemieux, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Friday: The snow that started accumulating today should continue till the end of the day Friday. The expected total snow accumulation are looking to be around 35 cm with the biggest amounts S and W of the region. The strong W winds will switch from the NW. Freezing level will continue dropping during the day to hit valley bottom by the end of the day.Saturday: Snow should keep falling lightly during the day as the tail of the system keeps feeding the E part of the region. Sunday: A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern bringing clear and valley bottom freezing levels. Winds should calm down to become light.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. Ski cutting near Crowsnest Pass produced no results. We expect avalanche activity for the coming days in many areas.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy amounts of snow and strong winds from the W-NW is the reason the dangers rating is rising. With these conditions, expect a natural avalanche cycle. The persistent weak layers (PWL) that have been giving sudden planar snow test results but been unreactive to skier traffic could most likely become active again with the addition of this new load. These PWL are more reactive in the Flathead and Elk Valley South and consists surface hoar, crust, and/or facets down 50-90cm. The bottom of the snowpack is also very weak in many areas creating the possibility of having avalanches running to the ground in shallower snowpack, rockier ground areas.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Loading from new snow and strong W-NW winds is expected to cause a natural avalanche cycle.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

3 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Storm avalanches could step down to a persistent weakness buried down 70 cm. This is the case especially in the Flathead and Elk Valley South areas.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar and facet/crust combo layer.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2014 2:00PM