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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 2nd, 2014–Jan 3rd, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Friday:  The snow that started accumulating today should continue till the end of the day Friday. The expected total snow accumulation are looking to be around 35 cm with the biggest amounts S and W of the region. The strong W winds will switch from the NW. Freezing level will continue dropping during the day to hit valley bottom by the end of the day.Saturday:  Snow should keep falling lightly during the day as the tail of the system keeps feeding the E part of the region. Sunday: A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern bringing clear and valley bottom freezing levels. Winds should calm down to become light.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. Ski cutting near Crowsnest Pass produced no results. We expect avalanche activity for the coming days in many areas.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy amounts of snow and strong winds from the W-NW is the reason the dangers rating is rising. With these conditions, expect a natural avalanche cycle. The persistent weak layers (PWL) that have been giving sudden planar snow test results but been unreactive to skier traffic could most likely become active again with the addition of this new load. These PWL are more reactive in the Flathead and Elk Valley South and consists surface hoar, crust, and/or facets down 50-90cm. The bottom of the snowpack is also very weak in many areas creating the possibility of having avalanches running to the ground in shallower snowpack, rockier ground areas.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Loading from new snow and strong W-NW winds is expected to cause a natural avalanche cycle.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Storm avalanches could step down to a persistent weakness buried down 70 cm. This is the case especially in the Flathead and Elk Valley South areas.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar and facet/crust combo layer.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 6