Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Overnight and Sunday: 5-10 cm of snow beginning Saturday night or early Sunday morning. The snow is expected to be combined with very strong Southwest winds. The freezing level is expected to drop during the precipitation to about 1000 metres.Monday: Another pulse of 5-10 cm of snow combined with very strong Southwest winds. Freezing level rising during the storm to about 1500 metres. Tuesday: A bit of a break in the morning, with the next pulse of moisture and wind expected to start late in the day.

Skiers remotely triggered a size 2.0 avalanche in the storm snow on a South aspect in the alpine. I suspect that the storm slab is settling and becoming more cohesive. Forecast new snow and wind loading are expected to add a new load to this recent storm slab that may increase the sensitivity to human triggers and may result in natural avalanches.

Over the last few days 30-50cm has been deposited across the region. South westerly winds have built reactive slabs 40- 80cm thick, on lee north and east aspects at upper elevations. Recent snowpack tests show sudden and easy results, indicating that storm slabs are not bonding well to underlying layers - these include; old hard slabs in the alpine, sun crusts, and several sandwiched layers of facets and surface hoar. The mid snowpack is strong and supportive. A deep persistent layer of facets and depth hoar near the base of the snowpack has remained dormant to this point, but may become a concern with additional load and stress on the snowpack.