Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

A western flow will bring a series of lows into our region starting on Thursday night.  Moderate precipitation will result with mixed snow and rain into the weekend.  There will be a gradual cooling trend that seems to peak on Sunday.Thursday overnight: Light to moderate snowfall/rain overnight / Light southwest winds / Freezing levels 1800mFriday: Light to moderate snowfall/rain / moderate southwest winds / Freezing levels up to 2000m during the afternoon.Saturday:  Light precipitation / light to moderate south west winds / Freezing levels up to 2000m during the daySunday:  Light to moderate precipitation possible / light easterly winds / Freezing levels dropping to 1600m during the day and 900m overnight

A natural size 2.5 wet slab out of the alpine occurred sometime in the last 24 hours on a south facing shoulder of Mt Hosmer.  A size 2.5 glide release, 50 meters wide and to ground was reported in the nearby Lizard Range on a steep east facing slope on Wednesday.Earlier in the week, numerous wet slab avalanches and glide crack releases to size 3 were observed  from South to West aspects.

The classic melt freeze cycle has come to an end with cloud and warm temps preventing a good refreeze in most of the forecast region. Along with the solar aspects, previously dry north facing zones in the alpine are also now moist.  A buried rain crust can be found down 25-50 cm and exists up to around 2100 m.   Larger triggers such as a loose wet slide, or cornice fall may cause this layer to fail.Snow is isothermal on south facing aspects in the alpine/treeline and on all aspects below treeline.