Avalanche Forecast

Low - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Light to heavy snowfall is expected across southern BC Friday night through Sunday. An easterly arctic front meeting a southwesterly flow will produce enhanced snowfall where this clash occurs; a band of heavy snowfall is forecasted from Waterton, through Fernie, and into the western South Rockies.

Friday night: Snow, 10-20 cm overnight. Southwest wind, gusting to 50 km/hr. Treeline temperatures near -12 and freezing level at valley bottom. Temperatures continue to drop overnight.

Saturday: Ongoing flurries, another 10-15 cm accompanied by moderate southwest wind. Treeline temperatures near -13 and freezing levels at the valley bottom.

Sunday: Cloudy with scattered flurries, 5-10 cm. Light winds from the southwest and colder temperatures at -17. 

Monday: Mix of sun, cloud, and isolated flurries. Calm winds and cold temperatures with a high of -19. 

On Thursday, skiers and machines triggered storm slab avalanches to size 2, explosives triggered slab avalanches to size 3. Poor visibility prevented good alpine observations.

Operators have reported that re-loaded bed surfaces (areas that have already avalanched this season) have become reactive with new loads, while deeper snowpack areas that did not previously avalanche remain dormant, furthering the complexity of dealing with a persistent weak layer.

Ongoing snowfall over the weekend will add to 30-50 cm of recent storm snow. The new snow buried a surface hoar interface and pockets of old wind slab. Low-density storm snow exists in wind-sheltered areas.

Below the new snow exists a well-consolidated upper snowpack which overlies a substantial crust that formed in early December. This crust is approximately 90-150 cm below the surface, 20 cm thick on average, and is present across all aspects to at least 2400 m. A layer of weak facets (sugary snow) has been reported above this crust. Snowpack tests are generally showing hard results on this interface.

The lower snowpack consists of a variety of early-season crusts and mainly moist snow. Snowpack depths range from 100-200 cm at treeline elevations and taper quickly below 1800 m.

• Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
• Start with conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.
• Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.