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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 21st, 2018–Jan 22nd, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

In the south and western parts of the region, heavy snowfall is expected to continue and keep the avalanche danger at HIGH.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Monday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 700mTuesday: 8-15cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 400mWednesday: 7-15cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 1000m

Avalanche Summary

An impressive natural storm slab avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred in response to new snow and wind on Monday. On Tuesday, natural avalanche activity is expected to continue, particularly in direct coastal areas where heavy snowfall is forecast to persist.

Snowpack Summary

The region has been pummeled by heavy snowfall and extreme southerly winds. By Monday morning expect about a metre of snow to have fallen in the past 48 hours. Thanks to the winds, I would anticipate extensive scouring and redistribution of the recent storm snow at all elevation bands with dense storm slabs lurking in lee and cross-loaded features. Impressive cornice growth is also expected to have occurred.About 150cm below the surface you'll find a crust that was buried mid-January and is present at all elevations. This crust is thin on northerly aspects and up to 3 cm thick on solar aspects. Most reports suggest an improving bond at this interface, but the load of the new snow may tip the balance and reactivate this layer in isolated terrain. Below this, the snowpack is generally strong and well-settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

An impressive storm has just occurred, and deep and dense storm slabs lurk in lee and cross-loaded terrain. This isn't the sort of avalanche problem you manage with a ski cut. Only time will help the snowpack adjust to the weight of the new snow.
The new snow will take time to settle and stabilize.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5