Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 15th, 2016 3:00PM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Loose Wet, Cornices and Wet Slabs.

triley, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Spring Conditions. Sunny skies and very high freezing levels will increase the avalanche danger this weekend. The surface crust may break down rapidly if there is no re-freeze overnight.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Cloud overnight decreasing as moderate to strong southerly winds develop as the ridge of high pressure builds. Clearing during the day on Saturday with strong southerly winds and freezing levels at 2500 metres. Clear on Sunday with freezing levels rising up to at least 3000 metres and treeline temperatures around plus 10 degrees. Monday should be the warmest day with freezing levels at 3500 metres.

Avalanche Summary

One small size 1.0 skier controlled wind slab was reported on Wednesday from a steep north aspect in the high alpine. Most commercial operations in the region have closed for the season, and data has become sparse.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface is currently going through a typical spring melt-freeze cycle on all aspects and at all elevations, except possibly high true-north slopes which could be holding onto cold snow. The strength (thickness) of the surface crust and how quickly it breaks down during the day are important factors to focus on. Watch for new snow releasing as loose wet avalanches when the sun comes out. Thin new wind slabs may be easy to trigger when they are exposed to strong solar radiation. Watch for very warm temperatures developing this weekend.

Problems

Loose Wet

Forecast sunny skies and high freezing levels may rapidly weaken the surface snow on solar aspects. Shaded aspects in the alpine may warm up enough to release as loose wet avalanches.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Travel early before the heat of the day, and avoid big slopes in the afternoon.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Strong solar radiation and high freezing levels will be another test for remaining cornices in the alpine and at treeline. Avoid travelling beneath corniced ridges.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Wet Slabs

The likelihood of wet slab avalanches will increase over the next few days due to forecast high freezing levels and strong solar radiation.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>Travel early before the heat of the day, and avoid big slopes in the afternoon.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Apr 16th, 2016 2:00PM