Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 27th, 2012–Nov 28th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will see mostly cloudy skies with snowfall developing late in the day. Moderate snowfall will continue throughout Thursday and Friday. Winds will be moderate to strong from the west on Wednesday switching to strong and southwesterly for Thursday and Friday. Freezing levels should remain at about 1200m for the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 sled-triggered slab avalanche occurred on Sunday in the Yanks Peak area. It was on a northwest aspect at 1900m. For more details, check-out our Incident Data Base.

Snowpack Summary

Healthy amounts of snow fell throughout last week. Although alpine wind data has been sparse, velocities in neighboring regions were in the upper end of moderate during the storms. That said, I'd be highly curious about the possibility of windslabs in exposed areas. Although storm slab reactivity is still possible, a break in the snowfall over the last few days has most likely given the upper snowpack a chance to settle and gain some strength. There may be a thin buried surface hoar layer down about 85 cm in the alpine. As well, the November rain crust now exists over 100cm down in some locations and may exist in combination with facets. This layer has shown sudden planar test results.A you're traveling through the mountains, be on the look-out for current surface hoar development and think about how it will affect the snowpack as new snow arrives over the next few days.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm/wind slabs formed last week have gained significant strength, although triggering may still occur on steep, unsupported terrain. Forecast winds may also form new windslabs.
If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.>Be cautious around freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

There is a variable crust that exists in the lower snowpack. Watch for triggering on unsupported terrain at higher elevations or within start zones with smooth ground cover.
Conditions are greatly improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5