Summary
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Overnight and Sunday: Another 10 to 20 cm precipitation in the forecast. Winds remain strong from the S-SW, freezing levels should near or at valley bottoms.Monday: Light precipitation, ( 5-10 cms), winds changing to W-NW, freezing levels may rise to 1200m.Tuesday: Light flurries, moderate to strong winds from the west, freezing levels may rise to 1400m in parts of the forecast area
Avalanche Summary
There have been no reports of avalanche activity in the past few days. However professional operators in the area are still concerned about the deeply buried October facet/crust layer. Although unlikely, given enough load and/or hitting the sweet spot (i.e. thin area) it may be possible to trigger this layer resulting in a large and destructive avalanche. we should also expect to see an increase in natural and rider/skier triggered avalanches as new snow amounts continue to accumulate and the wind speeds pick up over the next couple days.
Snowpack Summary
In some parts of the forecast area, as much as 50 cm of recent storm snow overlies a variety of old snow surfaces, ranging from stiff wind slabs to a soft layer of facetted snow and/or surface hoar. A rain crust below the 1600m elevation band should now be buried over a metre, and a surface hoar or facet layer is down 160 + cm deep. Snowpack depths vary, but in general around 200cm of snow can be found at tree line with 130 to over 300 cm in the alpine. In some places we're still dealing with a relatively thin snowpack (thanks to a windy early season). The basal facet/crust combo (weak sugary snow above and below a crust) near the ground was active in an avalanche cycle last week. This weakness may be difficult to trigger but if triggered, will result in very large, destructive avalanches.
bcorrigan,
Avalanche Canada
