Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 16th, 2015 7:38AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Wet and Persistent Slabs.

Peter, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

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Summary

Confidence

Good - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will maintain mostly sunny skies through Wednesday. Freezing levels bounce between valley bottom overnight and 1500-2000 m during the day. It could be even warmer on Wednesday with an above freezing layer near 2500 m. Winds are generally light gusting to moderate from the W-NW. The ridge flattens slightly late on Wednesday and allows a weak system to cross the province on Thursday. This could bring a few centimetres of snow, more cloud, and slightly cooler temperatures.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Sunday include one explosive-triggered cornice fall (that did not trigger a slab) and one explosive-triggered loose snow sluff from steep unsupported terrain. There was more evidence of the previous natural avalanche cycle with numerous slides up to size 3.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface is a mix of crusts, 5-10 cm of low density snow, or wind affected snow. Below the recent crust you may find moist snow for a few days yet. At alpine elevations, new wind slabs or storm slabs may be found and cornices are large and weak. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer, buried up to a metre deep, gives variable results in snowpack tests with some continuing to report sudden "pops" results. The mid-January surface hoar is typically down 80-120cm. Chances of triggering this have decreased, but it could possibly be triggered from thin or rocky snowpack areas; or perhaps with a cornice fall, or an avalanche stepping down. Deeper persistent weaknesses are dormant at this time but should remain in the back of your mind, especially during periods of intense solar radiation and warming.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh wind slabs may be lurking behind ridges and terrain features. Cornices are also large and weak and could collapse.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

Expect loose wet sluffs on steep sun-exposed slopes. These could trigger persistent weaknesses if they gain significant mass.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Persistent slabs are most likely to be triggered from thin snowpack areas, or with large triggers like cornice fall or an avalanche stepping down.

Avoid steep slopes below cornices.>Avoid common trigger spots, including convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Feb 17th, 2015 2:00PM